On November 8, the United States will vote on whether to elect Donald Trump as their president. These elections have a lot in common with the recent referendum in the Brexit. The polls suggest that Trump has no chance to win against Hillary Clinton, but you never know, as was shown by the result of the Brexit referendum.
Until now, the US, global markets and financial policymakers seem not so sensitive to “Trump risk”, although many observers esteem that the risks to the US and global economies of Donald Trump’s election as president are not to be underestimated. They state that the damage would be felt far beyond the United States. They think also that Trump’s authoritarian style and cult of personality surely would take a toll on business confidence.
The tax cuts suggested by Trump would threaten US fiscal stability. He has also raised the possibility of the US restructuring its debt in the manner of a failed real estate developer. Perhaps this is just campaign rhetoric. But historical research suggests that presidents tend to carry out their major campaign promises. Second, in a world economy defined by global integration, Trump’s economic nationalism is highly dangerous. Exports have been a major driver of the American economy in recent years. What would happen to exports if the US were to build a wall along its southern border and abrogate all its trade treaties? Withdrawal from trade agreements does not currently require congressional approval. If Donald Trump did even half of what he has promised, he would, so suggest many economic specialists, surely set off the worst trade war since the Great Depression. In that case many American corporations could be tempted to search other horizons. In the Brussels offices of HDS, at the heart of Europe, they would be more than welcome. We offer them all the business solutions and services they need. And of course, it is not only in the case Trump wins, that we can help them. They’re also very welcome if they want to have a European office to accompany their further global development.